Can you trust your gut?
Intuition misleads
Fast, automatic thinking produces confident errors: biases, anchoring and wildly inconsistent judgements between experts.
Thinking, Fast and Slow · NoiseIntuition is expertise
Experienced firefighters, pilots and doctors make fast, accurate calls by recognising patterns. Simple gut rules often beat complex models.
Gut Feelings · Sources of PowerBoth agree intuition is pattern-matching. It is only as good as the experience and feedback that trained it.
Trust intuition in a familiar domain where you've had lots of practice with quick, honest feedback, like a seasoned negotiator reading a room. Distrust it in unfamiliar, noisy domains with slow or no feedback, like forecasting markets or hiring from one interview.
Go with your gut for fast, repeated decisions in your area of real expertise. Slow down and use structure, checklists and outside views for rare, high-stakes or unfamiliar decisions.
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