Decisions

Superforecasting: 6 key ideas

by Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

The core ideas of Superforecasting, each in under a minute, written in our own words. Want the full depth? Get the book.

1. IDEA 1 OF 6

   Forecasting is a skill

   In tournaments, a group of ordinary people consistently beat experts at predicting world events.

   Their habits can be learned.

2. IDEA 2 OF 6

   Break problems down

   Split big questions into smaller, answerable parts and estimate each.

3. IDEA 3 OF 6

   Start with base rates

   Begin with how often similar events happen, then adjust for the specifics of this case.

4. IDEA 4 OF 6

   Update in small steps

   Change estimates frequently as new information arrives, but avoid overreacting.

5. IDEA 5 OF 6

   Keep score

   Use precise probabilities and track accuracy so you can improve.

6. IDEA 6 OF 6

   Teams can beat individuals

   Well-run teams that share information and challenge each other forecast better.