Can the future be predicted?
Forecasting is a skill
Careful people who break problems down, start from base rates and update often consistently beat experts on near-term questions.
SuperforecastingThe big events can't be
History is driven by rare, extreme events nobody foresaw. Prediction gives false confidence; build systems that survive or gain from surprises.
The Black Swan · AntifragileBoth are scathing about pundits and overconfident experts, and both value humility about uncertainty.
Forecast the ordinary, prepare for the extraordinary. Use probabilistic estimates for near-term, repeatable questions, while structuring your life and business so that a surprise you didn't predict can't ruin you, and ideally helps you.
Forecast when questions are specific, short-term and similar to past cases. Build robustness when the horizon is long, the downside is ruin, or the domain is ruled by rare extremes.
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